📉 Recent weeks have seen signs of a decline in the Dubai real estate market – Why are we seeing more distressed properties now?
In recent weeks (March 2026) the Dubai property market has not collapsed completely, but there are signs slowdown and short-term decline after strong growth.
Decreased activity
- The number of transactions decreased by approximately 37 % compared to last year
- And approximately 49 % compared to the previous month
- Discounts have been introduced for certain expensive properties. 12–15 %
Analysts note that the growth that had been ongoing since 2023 has stopped,
and some of the growth from early 2026 was lost.
It is also reported:
- The number of inquiries from buyers has decreased by approximately 30 %
- some investors temporarily left the market
- some capital is transferred to other countries
📊 But prices haven't collapsed yet
Despite the decline in activity, the market remains strong:
- In February 2026 there were about 16,900 transactions
- Total cost is about 60 billion dirhams
- This is still higher than a year ago
Sales continued at the beginning of March as well,
The volume of transactions over the week amounted to several billion dirhams.
This means that the market does not fall sharply,
but rather moves into a correction phase.
📉 Overall picture by year
| Period | Trend |
|---|---|
| 2023–2025 | strong growth |
| Jan–Feb 2026 | growth continues |
| End of February – March 2026 | slowdown / correction |
| Now | instability, but without collapse |
Reasons for the slowdown
Analysts cite several factors:
- high prices after a long period of growth
- growth in supply (a lot of housing is being built)
- geopolitical tensions
- Investors are waiting to see what happens next
✔️ Result
Yes, the Dubai property market has seen a slight decline in recent weeks,
but it looks more like correction after strong growth,
and not a real crisis or collapse.
DFM Real Estate Index
DFM Real Estate & Construction Index
This index does not show apartment prices, but company shares:
- Emaar
- Damac
- Nakheel
- other developers
It can fall quickly because it's the stock market.
That's why:
- the index is falling
- and real property prices may still hold up
📊 Index dynamics after the start of the escalation
| Date | Index value |
|---|---|
| February 28, 2026 | ~16 100 |
| March 5, 2026 | ~14 700 |
| March 9, 2026 | ~13 300 |
| March 10, 2026 | ~13 000 |
| mid-March 2026 | ~11,500–12,500 |
The decline was approximately:
➡️ −20%
➡️ sometimes down to -30% at the peak of panic
📉 Graph (schematic)
16,500 ┤
16000 ┤■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
15000 ┤■■■■■■■■■■
14000 ┤■■■■■■■
13000 ┤■■■■■
12000 ┤■■■■
11000 ┤■■■
Feb Mar Mar
28 5 15
The sharp decline began immediately after news of the military conflict and tension in the Middle East.
Investors have started selling shares of developers,
That's why the index fell faster than real property prices.
This index does NOT show real prices for apartments.
It only shows:
- company shares
- investor expectations
- market sentiment
Therefore, the following situation is possible:
- the index is falling
- and real estate is still being sold at high prices
This is normal for the Dubai market.
The Dubai real estate index fell by approximately 20-30%, the decline occurred over 1-2 weeks, due to investor panic. This does not mean that apartments have become cheaper by the same amount.
Website:
https://dxbinteract.com
In Dubai, it is truly considered that a real distress sale is when a property is sold at a price significantly below market value.
Typically it is:
-15%
-20%
sometimes -25%
rare -30% and more
Such transactions occur when:
the owner has a debt
I need to sell urgently
the investor leaves the project
The bank demands that the loan be closed
An off-plan investor cannot pay in installments
In such cases, the price is actually lower than the market price.
This is in line with what brokers and analytical reports write.
✔️ Reality: True distressed deals are typically 15–20% cheaper
In Dubai it is actually believed that a real distress sale - this is when an object is sold significantly below market price.
Typically it is:
- -15%
- -20%
- sometimes -25%
- rare -30% and more
Such transactions occur when:
- the owner has a debt
- I need to sell urgently
- the investor leaves the project
- The bank demands that the loan be closed
- An off-plan investor cannot pay in installments
In such cases, the price is actually lower than the market price.
This is in line with what brokers and analytical reports write.
This site shows:
- Real deals from the Dubai Land Department
- price per square foot
- latest sales
- history of the object
- below-market deals
- investor resales
📉 Why do discounted/distressed deals appear after attacks?
When there is a risk of war or attacks, a typical reaction occurs:
- Investors are starting to sell faster
- Some owners want to exit the market
- Buyers are demanding a discount
- Transactions are taking place below the market
Therefore, the following appear:
- urgent sale
- motivated seller
- distress deal
- below market
This does not mean that the entire market is falling,
but the number of discounted objects is increasing.
📉 The Impact of the Conflict on Economic Activity in Dubai
Following the attacks, it is reported:
- the airport's operations were disrupted
- there were flight cancellations
- investor concerns have increased
- business activity has decreased
When transport and finances suffer,
The real estate market reacts almost immediately.
📉 Why are we seeing more distressed properties now?
After the start of the conflict (late February 2026):
- the risk in the region has increased
- some investors decided to leave
- some deals fell through
- sellers began to lower prices
Therefore, on sites like:
- DXBinteract
- PropertyFinder
- distressed.ae
There are more discounted properties now.
✔️ Result
Yes, the emergence of discounted/distressed real estate is now associated with:
- drone attacks
- tension in the region
- a blow to the financial district
- investors' caution
This is not a market crash,
but a typical correction due to geopolitical risk.